ABSTRACT
We propose and study an epidemiological model on a social network that takes into account heterogeneity of the population and different vaccination strategies. In particular, we study how the COVID-19 epidemics evolves and how it is contained by different vaccination scenarios by taking into account data showing that older people, as well as individuals with comorbidities and poor metabolic health, and people coming from economically depressed areas with lower quality of life in general, are more likely to develop severe COVID-19 symptoms, and quicker loss of immunity and are therefore more prone to reinfection. Our results reveal that the structure and the spatial arrangement of subpopulations are important epidemiological determinants. In a healthier society the disease spreads more rapidly but the consequences are less disastrous as in a society with more prevalent chronic comorbidities. If individuals with poor health are segregated within one community, the epidemic outcome is less favorable. Moreover, we show that, contrary to currently widely adopted vaccination policies, prioritizing elderly and other higher-risk groups is beneficial only if the supply of vaccine is high. If, however, the vaccination availability is limited, and if the demographic distribution across the social network is homogeneous, better epidemic outcomes are achieved if healthy people are vaccinated first. Only when higher-risk groups are segregated, like in elderly homes, their prioritization will lead to lower COVID-19 related deaths. Accordingly, young and healthy individuals should view vaccine uptake as not only protecting them, but perhaps even more so protecting the more vulnerable socio-demographic groups.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Clinical evidence exists that patients with diabetes are at higher risk for Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We investigated the physiological origins of this clinical observation linking diabetes with severity and adverse outcome of COVID-19. METHODS: Publication mining was applied to reveal common physiological contexts in which diabetes and COVID-19 have been investigated simultaneously. Overall, we have acquired 1,121,078 publications from PubMed in the time span between 01-01-2000 and 17-04-2020, and extracted knowledge graphs interconnecting the topics related to diabetes and COVID-19. RESULTS: The Data Mining revealed three pathophysiological pathways linking diabetes and COVID-19. The first pathway indicates a higher risk for COVID-19 because of a dysregulation of Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2. The other two important physiological links between diabetes and COVID-19 are liver dysfunction and chronic systemic inflammation. A deep network analysis has suggested clinical biomarkers predicting the higher risk: Hypertension, elevated serum Alanine aminotransferase, high Interleukin-6, and low Lymphocytes count. CONCLUSIONS: The revealed biomarkers can be applied directly in clinical practice. For newly infected patients, the medical history needs to be checked for evidence of a long-term, chronic dysregulation of these biomarkers. In particular, patients with diabetes, but also those with prediabetic state, deserve special attention.